Showing posts with label feedbacks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label feedbacks. Show all posts

Friday, February 2, 2024

Blue Ocean Event 2024?

How likely is an Arctic Blue Ocean Event (BOE) to occur in 2024 or even a Double BOE? The image below is alarming. 


The highest daily sea surface temperatures on record (going back to 1981) were reached in February 2024, even higher than the peaks in 2023. Even higher temperatures may be reached over soon, in March 2024 and April 2024.

As the above image shows, the highest temperatures for the year are typically reached in March. This was the case for the previous years on record, except for 2023 when the current El Niño started to emerge and when the highest peak for the year occurred in August. According to NOAA, the majority of models indicate that this El Niño will persist through March-May 2024. 

Antarctic sea ice extent typically reaches an annual minimum end February, while Arctic sea ice extent typically reaches an annual minimum in September, after a steep decline resulting from more sunlight reaching higher latitudes North and ocean heat reaching a second peak in August.   

Ominously, daily surface air temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere exceeded 17°C recently, something that never happened before in the record going back to 1981. Antarctic sea ice extent typically reaches an annual minimum end February. Loss of sea ice acts as a self-reinforcing feedback loop, accelerating the temperature rise. The daily surface air temperature in the Southern Hemisphere was 17.005°C on Feb 1, 2024, following a peak of 17.01°C on Jan 31, 2024.


Higher temperatures can cause sea ice to melt, even out of season

As illustrated by the image below, adapted from Pidwirny, sunlight does not reach the North Pole until the March Equinox. From that time on, insolation rises steeply. Around the June Solstice, more sunlight reaches the North Pole than anywhere else on Earth. In the image below, insolation is calculated taking into account the combined effects of angle of incidence and day length duration. 

The conclusion is that ocean heat is the main reason why melting of Arctic sea ice can occur early in the year. More specifically, the narrowing of the temperature difference between the Arctic and the Tropics can at times cause strong wind to be present along the path of the Gulf Stream. Rising ocean heat combined with strong wind can cause heat to move abruptly toward the Arctic Ocean, causing sea ice to fall in extent. 

Such an event is illustrated by the image below, adapted from NSIDC. The image shows a drop in sea ice extent at the end of January 2024 (blue), a time of year when Arctic sea ice is still expected to increase in extent and to keep increasing in extent for some time to come (grey). In this case, strong wind may have caused a huge amount of ocean heat that is present in the North Atlantic to move abruptly toward the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in an earlier post

For the time of year, Arctic sea ice extent is currently still extensive, compared to earlier years, which is a reflection of more water vapor in the atmosphere and more precipitation. While sea ice extent is relatively large, sea ice volume is among the lowest of all years on record for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below. 

This indicates that Arctic sea ice is very thin. Ominously, the image below indicates that there is a huge area near the North Pole with very thin sea ice. 


Furthermore, much of the thicker sea ice is located off the east coast of Greenland, which means that this sea ice is likely to melt away quickly as more sunlight starts reaching the Northern Hemisphere and temperatures rise in line with seasonal changes (see the insolation image further above).


The North Atlantic sea surface temperature was 20.4°C on February 15, 2024, i.e. 0.6°C higher than on February 15, 2023.

High North Atlantic sea surface temperatures spell bad news for the Arctic, as much ocean heat gets pushed toward the Arctic from the North Atlantic. 

North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are just starting to heat up from their annual minimum and can be expected to rise strongly, in line with seasonal changes. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]
Ominously, a peak temperature of 25.4°C was reached on Aug.31, 2023, much higher than the peak in any of the preceding years dating back to 1981.

During the six months between the September Equinox and the March Equinox (see image further above), no sunlight is reaching the North Pole. 

Nonetheless, temperature anomalies in the Arctic are already extremely high, due to ocean heat that has entered the Arctic Ocean from the North Atlantic, as illustrated by the two maps on the right and the two maps on the right further below.

Northern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies were as much as 12.6°C or 22.7°F higher than 1981-2011 on February 15, 2024, locarion marked by the green circle on the image below.


Feedbacks 

Slowing down of AMOC and cooling due to heavier melting of Greenland's ice is causing less ocean heat to reach the Arctic Ocean, while a huge amount of ocean heat is accumulating in the North Atlantic, as it did in 2023. A large part of this heat in the North Atlantic can also be present underneath the sea surface.

These developments occur at the same time as ocean stratification increases (as temperatures rise, see above images), as more freshwater enters the ocean (as a result of more meltwater and of runoff from land and from rivers), and as more evaporation takes place and more rain falls further down the path of the Gulf Stream, all of which can contribute to formation and growth of a cold, freshwater lid at the surface of the North Atlantic.

cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic ]

Furthermore, storms can get stronger as temperatures rise and as changes take place to the Jet Stream. Strong wind can temporarily speed up currents that carry huge amounts of ocean heat with them toward the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one. Much of the ocean heat in the North Atlantic can therefore be pushed abruptly underneath this freshwater lid and flow into the Arctic Ocean. The image below shows that the Jet Stream reached speeds as high as 455 km/h or 283 mph north of Washington on February 18, 2024 03:00 UTC, with Instantaneous Wind Power Density as high as 387.5 kW/m².


The image below shows wind speed at 250 hPa on a background of sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1981-2011. 


The danger is that, due to strong wind along the path of the Gulf Stream, huge amounts of ocean heat will abruptly get pushed into the Arctic Ocean, with the influx of ocean heat causing destabilization of hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane.

Changes to the Jet Stream and ocean heat accumulating in the North Atlantic Ocean are both consequences of the overall temperature rise. A distorted Jet Stream can cause an abrupt influx of ocean heat into the Arctic Ocean.

Such additional ocean heat, combined with a steep rise in insolation hitting the Arctic in April and May, may suffice to cause a Blue Ocean Event (BOE) to occur in 2024.

[ click on images to enlarge ]
The far North has the highest temperature anomalies, they can as high as 7.04°C, as the image on the right shows.

A BOE occurs when virtually all sea ice disappears and less than 1 million km² of sea ice remains. As the sea ice disappears, the surface color changes from white (sea ice) to blue (ocean) resulting in far more sunlight getting absorbed by the Arctic Ocean, instead of getting reflected back into space as was previously the case.

Albedo change constitutes a huge self-reinforcing feedback loop, i.e. the more sea ice disappears, the more sunlight gets absorbed by the Arctic Ocean, further accelerating sea ice melting. 

[ Albedo change, from the Albedo page ]

Next to the albedo loss, there is loss of the latent heat buffer constituted by the sea ice. Latent heat is energy associated with a phase change, such as the energy consumed when solid ice turns into water (i.e. melts). During a phase change, the temperature remains constant. Sea ice acts as a buffer that absorbs heat, while keeping the temperature at about zero degrees Celsius. As long as there is sea ice in the water, this sea ice will keep absorbing heat, so the temperature doesn't rise at the sea surface.

The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat up an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C. 

Without the buffer constituted by thicker sea ice, an influx of ocean heat could destabilize hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane.

[ click on images to enlarge ]
The above image illustrates these tipping points and Northern Hemisphere Ocean Temperature anomalies vs 1901-2000, created with NOAA data. Trends and tipping point estimates are added. The magenta trend is based on Jan.1880-Jan.2024 data and warns that the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point may be crossed in 2025. The red trend is based on Jan.2010-Jan.2024 data and better reflects variables such as El Niño, and it warns that the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point may be crossed in 2024. 


The above image, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, shows a forecast for November 2024 of the 2-meter temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius, based on 1984-2009 model climatology. The anomalies are forecast to be very high for the Arctic Ocean.

Many additional feedbacks are active, such as changes to the Jet Stream and slowing down of AMOC, and they could speed up the crossing of such tipping points, as also discussed at the feedbacks page. The danger is that a cascade of events will unfold like a domino effect, leading to extinction of most species, including humans, as the image below warns. 

[ from earlier post - click on images to enlarge ]

Greenhouse gases rising

Meanwhile, concentrations of greenhouse gases keeps rising, as illustrated by the image below. 

The average daily carbon dioxide (CO₂) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, was 426.21 ppm (parts per million) on February 4, 2024. The weekly average was 425.83 ppm. 

Critical is the rate of change, in particular the rapid rise in temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations. To find higher CO₂ concentrations, one has to go back millions of years. 


A recent study concludes that: 
- A doubling of CO₂ is predicted to warm the planet a whopping 5°C to 8°C.
- The last time atmospheric CO₂ consistently reached today’s human-driven levels of 420 ppm was 14 million years ago.
- The hottest period was about 50 million years ago, when temperatures were as much as 12°C higher than today.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• Blue Ocean Event
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html

• Climate Reanalyzer - Daily Sea Surface Temperature, World (60°S-60°N)
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily

• Pidwirny, M. "Earth-Sun Relationships and Insolation". Fundamentals of Physical Geography, 2nd Edition (2006)
http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/6i.html

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf 

• NSIDC - Arctic sea ice extent
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Polar Portal - Sea Ice Thickness and Volume
http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume

• University of Bremen - Arctic sea ice

• Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego.

• Toward a Cenozoic history of atmospheric CO₂ - by The Cenozoic CO₂ Proxy Integration Project (CenCO₂PIP) Consortium






Sunday, September 24, 2023

September 2023, highest anomaly on record?


The above image shows the temperature in 2023 as a bold black line, up to September 22, 2023, with the temperature reaching an anomaly of 1.12°C above the 1979-2000 mean for that day.


The above image shows the temperature anomaly from the 1979-2000 mean. In blue are the years 1979-2022 and in black is the year 2023 up to September 25, 2023. A trend is added in pink based on 2023 data. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]
Note that 1979-2000 isn't pre-industrial, the anomaly from pre-industrial is significantly higher. 

It looks like September 2023 will be the month with the highest temperature anomaly on record and the year 2023 will be the hottest year on record. 

The question is whether temperatures will keep rising. The current El Niño is still strengthening, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from IRI, and there is more to be taken into account. 


Until now, February 2016 has been the hottest month on record. The above image, from an earlier post, shows that February 2016 was 3.28°C (5.904°F) hotter than 1880-1896 on land, and 3.68°C (6.624°F) hotter compared to February 1880 on land. Note that 1880-1896 is not pre-industrial either and that sustained anomalies higher than 3°C are likely to drive humans into extinction. The image adds a poignant note: Looking at global averages over long periods is a diversion, peak temperature rise is the killer!

The situation raises questions. How much has the temperature risen? Will the temperature keep rising? What can be done about it? How can these questions best be answered?

The Paris Agreement mandate



During the UN Climate Change Conference scheduled to be held from November 30 to December 12, 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, the first Global Stocktake of the implementation of the Paris Agreement will be concluded.

The 2015 Paris Agreement mandate: Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by undertaking rapid reductions in emissions in accordance with best available science.

Many assume that the temperature rise will only threaten to cross 1.5°C above pre-industrial in the second half of this century and that by that time action will have stopped the temperature from rising, with the idea that an increase in carbon sequestration could make up for remaining emissions and avoid dangerous climate change. 

The question is whether such assumptions and decisions are indeed based on best available science, as opposed to political whim. Indeed, politicians are vulnerable to collusion with lobbyists feeding suggestions that there was a carbon budget to divide among polluters to enable polluters to keep polluting for decades to come. Local People's Courts can best rule on such questions, after taking a closer look at points such as the following: 

  • Rise from pre-industrial - While many politicians keep pushing the idea that 1.5°C above pre-industrial hasn't been crossed yet, we may already have crossed 2°C above pre-industrial, as discussed in this analysis.

  • Policy choices - emission reductions are best achieved early, rather than late. Yet, many politicians keep supporting fuel (fossil fuel and biofuels) and envisage burning of fuel to continue well beyond 2050 (combined with BECCS). Instead, when taking into account damage to health and the environment, and the danger of runaway temperature rise, it should be clear that better policies must be implemented soon, such as local feebates, to support better methods and technologies such as biochar, heat pumps and eVTOL air taxis. 

  • Rising emissions - Politicians claim that merely stating to aim for net-zero emissions will suffice to reduce emissions, whereas the evidence shows that energy-related greenhouse gas emissions have started to grow again, following minor Covid lockdown-related reductions in 2020, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post
[ Global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions 2000-2022, adapted from EIA ]
  • Carbon sink loss - Carbon sinks have long been taking carbon out of the atmosphere, but they are struggling and many may turn from sinks into sources and instead add carbon to the atmosphere. In 2023, nearly 2bn tons of carbon is estimated to have already gone up into the atmosphere in Canada up to now due to forest fires, far exceeding annual emissions tied to Canada’s economy (i.e. 670m tons). As temperatures rise, trees become more vulnerable to diseases and insects such as bark beetles. A 2020 study shows that at higher temperatures, respiration rates continue to rise in contrast to sharply declining rates of photosynthesis. Under business-as-usual emissions, this divergence elicits a near halving of the land sink strength by as early as 2040. As temperatures rise, soils and vegetation will lose moisture to the atmosphere. The Land Evaporation Tipping Point can get crossed locally when water is no longer available locally for further evapotranspiration from the soil and vegetation, with the rise in land surface temperatures accelerating and vegetation decaying accordingly. Higher temperatures result in more extreme weather events, such as fires, droughts, storms, flooding and erosion, that can all contribute to further decrease the terrestrial carbon sink. The ocean is also struggling as a carbon sink, in part because increased river runoff and meltwater lowers alkalinity levels. Furthermore, warmer water holds less oxygen and is becoming more stratified and thus less able to supply nutrients to help plankton grow and store carbon

  • Hydroxyl loss - There is a danger that hydroxyl, the main way that methane gets broken down in the atmosphere, is declining or getting overwhelmed by the rise in methane, as described here.

  • Heat sink loss - This recent study and this one warn that AMOC (the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation) is slowing down faster than expected. A recent post warns that this can contribute to more hot water accumulating in the North Atlantic, as opposed to moving to greater depth. The post also warns that, as temperatures rise, less heat gets stored in oceans, because stratification increases and more heat can get transferred from oceans to the atmosphere as sea ice disappears. There also are indications that, over time, proportionally more heat is remaining in the atmosphere, while less heat gets stored on land. All this results in a hotter atmosphere. 
     
  • Albedo loss - Loss of sea ice, loss of snow cover and warming oceans causing fewer bright clouds combine to reflect less sunlight back into space, as discussed here and here
  • [ Two out of numerous feedbacks ]
    Feedbacks - Important also is the accelerating rate of change. In many respects, we're in uncharted territory and changes are occurring faster than ever in Earth's history, which should be reason for caution and even more reason to plan ahead!

    The danger is growing that feedbacks are kicking in with ever greater ferocity, i.e. non-linear change. The image on the right, from an earlier post, illustrates how two self-reinforcing feedback loops can contribute to accelerate the Arctic temperature rise.

    [ click on images to enlarge ]
  • [ see the Extinction page ]
    Tipping Points - An even more dramatic form of non-linear change occurs when tipping points get crossed, and the consequences can be catastrophic for the entire world.

    The above image, from an earlier post, illustrates the danger that, as the latent heat and seafloor methane tipping points get crossed, the ocean temperature will keep rising as huge amounts of methane get released in the Arctic.

    It is essential to assess the danger of events and developments such as heat reaching and destabilizing methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one.

    Seafloor methane is one of many elements that could jointly cause a temperature rise of over 10°C, in the process causing the clouds tipping point to get crossed that can push up the temperature rise by a further 8°C, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the extinction page

    Ominously, very high methane levels continue to be recorded at Barrow, Alaska, as illustrated by the NOAA image below.

Conclusion

Alarms bells have sounded loud and clear, such as here, warning that the temperature rise could be more than 3°C as early as in 2026. The precautionary principle should prevail and the looming dangers should prompt people into demanding comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation. To combat rising temperatures, a transformation of society should be undertaken, along the lines of this 2022 post in combination with a declaration of a climate emergency.


Links

• Climate Reanalyzer

• The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School 

• Paris Agreement

• International Energy Agency (IEA) - Global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions 2000-2022

• NOAA - Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory, United States
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html




Thursday, July 27, 2023

Record high North Atlantic sea surface temperature

On July 25, 2023, the North Atlantic sea surface reached a record high temperature of 24.9°C. The previous record was in early September 2022, when the temperature peaked at 24.89°C, according to NOAA scientist Xungang Yin and as illustrated by the image below. 

In previous years, a La Niña was suppressing temperatures, whereas El Niño is now pushing up temperatures. Arctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent about half September. We are facing huge sea ice loss over the coming weeks.

Temperatures are very high (and rising) and the following eight points contribute to this rise:

1. Emissions are high and greenhouse gas levels keep rising, and this is increasing Earth's Energy Imbalance. Oceans take up 89% of the extra heat.

2. El Niño is pushing up temperatures, whereas in previous years La Niña was suppressing temperatures. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius, as discussed in an earlier post.

In February 2016, when there was a strong El Niño, the temperature on land was 3.28°C (5.904°F) hotter than 1880-1896, and 3.68°C (6.624°F) hotter than February 1880 on land. Note that 1880-1896 is not pre-industrial, the difference will be even larger when using a genuinely pre-industrial base.

The above image, from an earlier post discussing extreme heat stress, adds a poignant punchline: Looking at global averages over long periods is a diversion, peak temperature rise is the killer!

[ click on images to enlarge ]
3. Sunspots in June 2023 were more than twice as high in number as predicted, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post and adapted from NOAA.

If this trend continues, the rise in sunspots forcing from May 2020 to July 2025 may well make a global temperature difference of more than 0.25°C, a recent analysis found.

4. A submarine volcano eruption near Tonga in January 2022 did add a huge amount of water vapor to the atmosphere, as discussed in an earlier post and also at facebook.

Since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas, this further contributes to speeding up the temperature rise. A 2023 study calculates that the eruption will have a warming effect of 0.12 Watts/m² over the next few years.

5. Aerosol changes are also contributing to the temperature rise, such as less Sahara dust than usual and less sulfur aerosols that are co-emitted with fossil fuel combustion, which previously masked the full impact of greenhouse gases.

6. The Jet Stream is getting increasingly deformed as the temperature difference between the Arctic and the Tropics narrows, and this can strongly increase the intensity, duration and frequency of extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere. 

The image on the right shows North Atlantic sea surface temperatures as much as 8.2°C or 14.7°F higher than 1981-2011 (green circle) on July 24, 2023. The image also shows that the Jet Stream is very deformed and features many circular patterns that contribute to stronger heating up of the North Atlantic, especially along the path of the Gulf Stream where the Jet Stream has a strong presence.

Deformation of the Jet Stream can also lead to stronger heatwaves on land that extend over the Arctic Ocean, which in turn can also strongly heat up the water of rivers that end in the Arctic Ocean. The image on the right shows huge amounts of heat surrounding Arctic sea ice and also shows that on July 28, 2023, the sea surface was as much as 19.7°C or 35.4°F hotter than 1981-2011 at an area where the Ob River meets the Kara Sea (green circle).

7. 
AMOC (the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation) is slowing down, further contributing to more hot water accumulating in the North Atlantic. Instead of reaching the Arctic Ocean gradually, a huge part of this heat that is now accumulating in the
North Atlantic may abruptly be pushed into the Arctic Ocean by strong storms that gain strength as the Jet Stream gets increasingly deformed. This danger grows as more ocean heat is accumulating in the North Atlantic and this situation threatens to cause huge eruptions of methane from the seafloor. 

8. Increased stratification, as temperatures rise, combines with increased meltwater and with stronger evaporation over the North Atlantic and stronger precipitation further down the path of the Gulf Stream. This threatens to result in the formation of a freshwater lid on top of the North Atlantic, enabling more hot water to flow underneath this lid into the Arctic Ocean, further increasing the methane threat.


Arctic reaches record high air temperature

The Arctic reached a record high 2-meter air temperature of 5.81°C on July 27, 2023, almost 2°C higher than the daily mean for the period 1979-2000, as illustrated by the image below. Arctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent half September, when the temperature in the Arctic falls below 0°C and water at the surface starts refreezing. 


One danger is that, as more heat is reaching sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, hydrates will be destabilized, resulting in eruption of huge amounts of methane from the seafloor.

As sea ice melts away, less sunlight gets reflected back into space, so more heat will reach the Arctic ocean and heat up the water, as discussed at the albedo page.

Furthermore, Arctic sea ice is already very thin, as illustrated by the image on the right. The thinner the sea ice, the less heat can be consumed in the process of melting the ice, as discussed at the latent heat page.

These are just three out of numerous developments that could unfold in the Arctic soon, such as tipping points getting crossed and feedbacks starting to kick in with greater ferocity, as discussed in an earlier post.

Latent heat loss, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page

Feedbacks

Syee Weldeab et al., in a 2022 study, looked at the early part (128,000 to 125,000 years ago) of the penultimate interglacial, the Eemian, when meltwater from Greenland caused a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). “What happens when you put a large amount of fresh water into the North Atlantic is basically it disturbs ocean circulation and reduces the advection of cold water into the intermediate depth of the tropical Atlantic, and as a result warms the waters at this depth,” he said. “We show a hitherto undocumented and remarkably large warming of water at intermediate depths, exhibiting a temperature increase of 6.7°C from the average background value,” Weldeab said.

Weldeab and colleagues used carbon isotopes (13C/12C) in the shells of microorganisms to uncover the fingerprint of methane release and methane oxidation across the water column. “This is one of several amplifying climatic feedback processes where a warming climate caused accelerated ice sheet melting,” he said. “The meltwater weakened the ocean circulation and, as a consequence, the waters at intermediate depth warmed significantly, leading to destabilization of shallow subsurface methane hydrates and release of methane, a potent greenhouse gas.”

Furthermore, more methane over the Arctic would push up temperatures locally over the Arctic Ocean as well as over permafrost on land. A 2020 study by Turetsky et al. found that Arctic permafrost thaw plays a greater role in climate change than previously estimated.

Ominously, some very high methane levels were recorded recently at Barrow, Alaska, as illustrated by the NOAA image below.
Further feedbacks can make the situation even more threatening. As an example, dissolved oxygen in oceans decreases as the temperature rises, further pushing up the temperature rise, as discussed, e.g., in a 2022 study by Jitao Chen et al. As the temperature rises, soil moisture content decreases, further pushing up temperatures, as discussed in an earlier post.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and is getting more dire every day, which calls for a Climate Emergency Declaration and implementation of comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan with an update at Transforming Society.


Links

• N. Atlantic ocean temperature sets record high: US agency

• Nullschool
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Climate Reanalyzer - sea surface temperature
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily

• Copernicus
https://climate.copernicus.eu

• University of Bremen - Arctic sea ice
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• A Prehistoric Climate Feedback Loop - Paleoclimatologist uncovers an ancient climate feedback loop that accelerated the effects of Earth's last warming episode (news release)
Evidence for massive methane hydrate destabilization during the penultimate interglacial warming - by Syee Weldeab et al. (study, 2022)

• Marine anoxia linked to abrupt global warming during Earth’s penultimate icehouse - by Jitao Chen et al. (2022)

• Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw - by Merritt Turetsky et al. (2020)
• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Barrow, Alaska
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts


• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Will there be Arctic sea ice left in September 2023?
• Dire situation gets more dire every day
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/dire-situation-gets-more-dire-every-day.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html





Friday, February 3, 2023

Dire situation gets even more dire

Antarctic sea ice extent was 1.788 million km² on February 21, 2023, an all-time low in the NSIDC record.

Antarctic sea ice area was 1,050,708 km² on February 22, 2023, as illustrated by the Nico Sun image below.


This means that a huge amount of heat that was previously reflected back into space by the sea ice is now instead absorbed by the Southern Ocean, in a self-reinforcing feedback loop that results in further sea ice loss, in turn further speeding up the temperature rise and making the weather ever more extreme.


Arctic sea ice extent was 14,271,000 km² on February 19, 2023, the third-lowest extent in the NSIDC record for the time of year, as illustrated by the above image.


Global sea ice extent reached a record low of 15,500,000 km² on February 11, 2023, as illustrated by the above image.

The situation is dire

The dire situation is further illustrated by the image below, showing high sea surface temperature anomalies (from 1981-2011) over the Southern Ocean, the Atlantic ocean and the Arctic Ocean on February 19, 2023. 


Given the dire situation regarding sea ice and sea surface temperatures, Arctic sea ice may fall dramatically later in the year.

Furthermore, emissions, ocean heat and greenhouse gas levels all keep rising. 

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, reached a record average daily high of 422.88 parts per million (ppm) on February 28, 2023, as illustrated by the above image and the image below. 


It is remarkable for CO₂ levels to already reach record high levels this early in the year, given that CO₂ levels typically reach their annual maximum in May. This spells bad news for developments over the next few months. Keep in mind that carbon dioxide reaches its maximum warming some 10 years after emission, so we haven't been hit by the full wrath of carbon dioxide pollution yet.

Possibly even worse is the rise in methane. The image below shows NOAA globally averaged marine surface monthly mean methane data from 2016, with methane reaching 1923.57 parts per billion (ppb) in November 2022. A moving average centered over 12 months is added to highlight the acceleration in the rise in methane.


Accordingly, temperatures keep rising. An earlier analysis concludes that we have already exceeded the 2°C threshold set at the Paris Agreement in 2015.

These dire conditions spell bad news regarding the temperature rise to come, the more so since, on top of these dire conditions, there are a number of circumstances, feedbacks and further developments that make the outlook even more dire.

Circumstances that make the situation even more dire

Firstly, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA, we're moving into an El Niño.

It looks like it's going to be a very strong El Niño, given that we've been in a La Niña for such a long time.

Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Temperature anomalies can be very high during an El Niño. The February 2016 temperature on land-only was 2.96°C above 1880-1920, and in February 2020, it was 2.79°C higher, as illustrated by the image below, created with screenshots taken on February 15, 2023. Note that 1880-1920 isn't pre-industrial.


Secondly, sunspots look set to reach a very high maximum by July 2025, as illustrated by the next two images on the right, adapted from NOAA.

Observed values for January 2023 are already well above the maximum values that NOAA predicted to be reached in July 2025.

If this trend continues, the rise in sunspots forcing from May 2020 to July 2025 may well make a difference of more than 0.25°C, a recent analysis found.

Thirdly, the 2022 Tonga submarine volcano eruption did add a huge amount of water vapor to the atmosphere.

Since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas, this is further contributing to speed up the temperature rise.

A 2023 study calculates that the submarine volcano eruption near Tonga in January 2022, as also discussed at facebook, will have a warming effect of 0.12 Watts/m² over the next few years.

The image below, created with NOAA data, shows Annual Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature Anomalies and has two trends added. The blue trend, based on 1850-2022 data, points at 3°C rise by 2032. The pink trend, based on 2012-2022 data, better reflects variables such as El Niño and sunspots, showing that this could trigger a huge rise, with 3°C crossed in 2024. Anomalies are from 1901-2000 (not from pre-industrial).


Feedbacks and developments making things worse

Indeed, a huge temperature rise could be triggered, due to a multitude of feedbacks and further developments that could strongly deteriorate the situation even further.

On top of the water vapor added by the Tonga eruption, there are several feedbacks causing more water vapor to get added to the atmosphere, as discussed at Moistening Atmosphere.

Further feedbacks include additional greenhouse gas releases such as methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and methane, carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide from rapidly thawing permafrost on land.

The image below shows the Northern Hemisphere Ocean Temperature Anomaly, compared to 1901-2000. The pink trend, based on 1850-2022 data, shows that the Latent Heat Tipping Point (at 1°C) was crossed in 2022, but the red trend, based on 2007-2022 data, better reflects variables such as El Niño and shows both the Latent Heat Tipping Point and the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point (at 1.35°C) getting crossed in 2024. 


Ominously, November 2023 temperature anomalies are forecast to be at the top end of the scale for a large part of the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the tropicaltidbits.com image below. 


Some developments could make things even worse and a huge temperature rise could unfold soon. The image below shows a polynomial trend added to NOAA globally averaged marine surface monthly mean methane data from April 2018 to November 2022, pointing at 1200 ppm CO₂e (carbon dioxide equivalent) getting crossed in 2027.

The Clouds Tipping Point, at 1200 ppm CO₂e, could be crossed and this on its own could result in a further rise of 8°C. As illustrated by the above image, this tipping point could be crossed as early as in 2027 due to forcing caused by the rise in methane alone. When further forcing is taken into account, this could happen even earlier than in 2027. 

On top of the February 28, 2023 daily average of 422.88 ppm for CO₂, methane can add 384.71 ppm CO₂e when using a 1-year GWP of 200 for NOAA's 1923.57 ppb November 2022 methane mean.

While methane at higher altitude can reach even higher levels than NOAA's marine surface data, adding NOAA's November 2022 mean to 422.88 ppm CO₂ would leave just 392.41 ppm CO₂e for further forcing, before the Clouds Tipping Point would get crossed, as the image on the right illustrates.

[ see the Extinction page ]
Further forcing comes from nitrous oxide and other greenhouse gases, while rises in other gases and further changes such as caused by sea ice loss and changes in aerosols can also speed up the temperature rise.

Changes in aerosols are discussed in earlier posts such as this post and this post. The upcoming temperature rise on land on the Northern Hemisphere could be so strong that much traffic, transport and industrial activity will grind to a halt, resulting in a reduction in cooling aerosols that are now masking the full wrath of global heating. These are mainly sulfates, but burning of fossil fuel and biomass also emits iron that helps photosynthesis of phytoplankton in oceans, as a 2022 study points out. 

Without these emissions, the temperature is projected to rise strongly, while there could be an additional temperature rise due to an increase in warming aerosols and gases as a result of more biomass and waste burning and forest fires.

The image on the right, from the extinction page, includes a potential rise of 1.9°C by 2026 as the sulfate cooling effect falls away and an additional rise of 0.6°C due to an increase in warming aerosols by 2026, as discussed in this post and earlier posts.

The image on the right indicates that the rise from pre-industrial to 2020 could be as much as 2.29°C. Earth's energy imbalance has grown since 2020. Therefore, the rise up to now may be higher. 

Climate Tipping Points and further Events and Developments

The temperature could also be pushed up further due to reductions in the carbon sink on land. An earlier post mentions a study that found that the Amazon rainforest is no longer a sink, but has become a source, contributing to warming the planet instead; another study found that soil bacteria release CO₂ that was previously thought to remain trapped by iron; another study found that forest soil carbon does not increase with higher CO₂ levels; another study found that forests' long-term capacity to store carbon is dropping in regions with extreme annual fires; another earlier post discussed the Terrestrial Biosphere Temperature Tipping Point, coined in a study finding that at higher temperatures, respiration rates continue to rise in contrast to sharply declining rates of photosynthesis, which under business-as-usual emissions would nearly halve the land sink strength by as early as 2040.

This earlier post also discusses how CO₂ and heat taken up by oceans can be reduced. A 2021 study on oceans finds that, with increased stratification, heat from climate warming less effectively penetrates into the deep ocean, which contributes to further surface warming, while it also reduces the capability of the ocean to store carbon, exacerbating global surface warming. A 2022 study finds that ocean uptake of CO₂ from the atmosphere decreases as the Meridional Overturning Circulation slows down. An earlier analysis warns about growth of a layer of fresh water at the surface of the North Atlantic resulting in more ocean heat reaching the Arctic Ocean and the atmosphere over the Arctic, while a 2023 study finds that growth of a layer of fresh water decreases its alkalinity and thus its ability to take up CO₂, a feedback referred to as the Ocean Surface Tipping Point.

[ from Blue Ocean Event 2022? - click on images to enlarge ]

The above image depicts only one sequence of events, or one scenario out of many. Things may eventuate in different orders and occur simultaneously, i.e. instead of one domino tipping over the next one sequentially, many events may occur simultaneously and reinforce each other. Further events and developments could be added to the list, such as ocean stratification and stronger storms that can push large amounts of warm salty water into the Arctic Ocean.

While loss of Arctic sea ice and loss of Permafrost in Siberia and North America are often regarded as tipping points, Antarctic sea ice loss, and loss of the snow and ice cover on Greenland, on Antarctica and on mountaintops such as the Tibetan Plateau could also be seen as tipping points. Another five tipping points are: 
- The Latent Heat Tipping Point
- The Seafloor Methane Tipping Point

Extinction

Altogether, the rise from pre-industrial to 2026 could be more than 18.44°C, while humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post.


This should act as a warning that near-term human extinction could occur sooner than most may think. Indeed, when asked what could cause humans to go extinct, many may mention:
  1. asteroid strikes
  2. rampant pestilence, diseases, epidemics and pandemics
  3. war, murder and violence
  4. ecosystems and vegetation collapse, famine
  5. dehydration
  6. plastic pollution, spread of poisonous and toxic substances
  7. nuclear accidents, nuclear war or waste leakage
  8. outbreaks of antibiotic-resistant bacteria
  9. emerging new or re-emerging ancient microbes
10. bio-weapons and biological experiments gone out of hand
11. infertility, genetic degeneration, loss of genetic diversity
12. madness, cults, depression and suicide
13. polar shifts, earthquakes, landslides and tsunamis
14. Artificial Intelligence gone rogue
15. hostile aliens breeding predatory animals

More recently, climate change threats are mentioned such as:
16. destructive storms, flooding, fires and more extreme weather
17. hydrogen sulfide gas released from oceans
18. depletion of the ozone layer
19. co-extinctions, i.e. extinction of species that humans depend on, resulting in our own demise.

There may be more threats, but I think the biggest threat is:
20. temperature rise
In the video below, Edge of Extinction: Destination Destruction, Guy McPherson gives his view on our predicament.




Conclusion

The dire situation we're in looks set to get even more dire, calling for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan and Transforming Society.


Links

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center
https://www.nsidc.org

• NSIDC - Chartic interactive sea ice graph
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Cryosphere Computing - by Nico Sun
https://cryospherecomputing.com

• Nullschool
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Climate Reanalyzer - sea ice based on NSIDC index V3
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/seaice

• NOAA - greenhouse gases - trends

• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• NOAA - Monthly temperature anomalies versus El Niño
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202301/supplemental/page-4

• NOAA - Solar cycle progression

• NASA gistemp Monthly Mean Global Surface Temperature - Land Only

• NOAA - Annual Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature Anomalies 

• Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 °C - by Stuart Jenkins et al. (2023)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01568-2



• Moistening Atmosphere
• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and more

• Latent Heat

• Blue Ocean Event

• Tropicaltidbits.com

• Methane keeps rising

• A huge temperature rise threatens to unfold soon

• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html

• Human Extinction by 2025?

• 2020: Hottest Year On Record

• The Importance of Methane in Climate Change

• The underappreciated role of anthropogenic sources in atmospheric soluble iron flux to the Southern Ocean - by Mingxu Liu et al. (2022)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00250-w

• How close are we to the temperature tipping point of the terrestrial biosphere? - by Katharyn Duffy et al. (2021)

• Overshoot or Omnicide? 

• Upper Ocean Temperatures Hit Record High in 2020 - by Lijing Cheng et al. (2021)

• Reduced CO₂ uptake and growing nutrient sequestration from slowing overturning circulation - by Yi Liu et al. (2022)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01555-7

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic
• Long-Term Slowdown of Ocean Carbon Uptake by Alkalinity Dynamics - by Megumi Chikamoto et al. (2023) 
• Ocean Surface Tipping Point Could Accelerate Climate Change

• When Will We Die?

• Edge of Extinction: Destination Destruction - video by Guy McPherson